Case Study California: The Rising Power of the Latino Voter

As California voters become older, less white, and more independent, Latino voters have grown to become one of the most important voting groups in the state.

Over the past 30 years, the Latino voters grew from 8% of the voting population to 21%. The sheer number of Latino voters in the state makes these voters pivotal for any candidate who wishes to win in a statewide race. During this same period, the number of registered Democrats dropped from nearly 60% of the electorate to about 45% of voters. Among Latinos, Democrats hold a 3 to 1 registration advantage over the Republicans; however, since Latino voters are 28% less likely to vote when compared to the voting population as a whole, Democrats must aggressively court these voters in order to ensure their support at the ballot box. Despite the Democratic registration, advantage in this group, past history reveals Latino voters trend toward conservative stances on divisive issues such as national defense, abortion, and gay marriage. George W. Bush's ability to win over 44% of Latino voters nationwide in 2004, and the Latino community's general support for California Proposition 8 in 2008 substantiate this traditionalist preference.

The events of the state's 2010 Gubernatorial Election vividly demonstrate the power of California Latinos clearly. Both Republican Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown have aggressively courted these voters with Spanish language advertisements and campaign literature, as well as extensive Latino-focused voter registration and Get-Out-The-Vote operations. They made history on October 2, when the candidates met on Univision, a Spanish language cable network, for the first bilingual debate in California history. The debate focused on issues ranging from healthcare, immigration and education, to jobs and the economy. The dominant topic of the debate—the issue that may propel Brown to victory among Latino voters and by extension the election at large—was the story of Whitman's former housekeeper Nicky Diaz Santillan. Diaz Santillan, an illegal immigrant, worked for Whitman for 9 years using false immigration documentation. When Diaz Santillan revealed her illegal immigrant status to Whitman last year, Whitman promptly fired Diaz Santillan. Upon the story's September revelation, Latino support propelled former Governor Brown to a 5% lead despite a statistical tie among non-Hispanic voters. Given his reliance on the support of Latino voters, Governor Brown's victory or defeat will rely upon his ability to translate his hefty Latino backing into actual voter turnout on November 2.